Echoing Nintendo’s hardware guidance, Hosiden (ホシデン, Switch assembler) forecast their “amusement” sales to “decline slightly” in FY2027-03:
H1 -5.58% YoY, and H2 -6.25% YoY
→ It makes sense that H2 is worse, because Switch 2 price hike will occur in 2026-09 outside of Japan.
FY -5.90% YoY
→ Notably smaller drop than Nintendo’s -16.9% NS2 hardware forecast for two reasons:
- FY26 sales included units produced in FY25 (pre-launch stock).
- Nintendo’s guidance seems extremely conservative.
Key takeaways: Hosiden projects a smaller decline of Switch 1 and 2 assembly business than Nintendo’s announced sales forecast. Although productions and sales don’t align completely, it’s still a good indicator that Nintendo’s public guidance is possibly more conservative than their internal projection (won’t be the first time).
[Originally posted on 2026-05-11 Pacific Time]
