I took a look at Nintendo’s latest R&D expenses total, and it seems that a new Switch 2 model could be released in 1.5-2 years (H2 2027 or H1 2028).
The annual R&D expenses have been trending up YoY in the Switch era (image 1 below), mostly due to the escalating software development costs (img 2). However, there were >20% spikes in FY2020-03 and FY2024-03, 1.5-2 years before the OLED Model and Switch 2 launches; now we see yet another >20% spike at the end of FY2026-03.
Why no explicit surge for the Lite launch, you ask? Two possibilities: 1) Going back to FY2014, the R&D jumped 34% (image below) out of the Wii U desperation. The Lite model might be planned from the start, as part of the +34% expenses. 2) It’s possible too that the Lite being a cut-down version of NS1 didn’t require too much R&D resources.
Depending on what you believe (warning: small sample size), FY2026’s R&D increase may either signal an NS2 Lite, a premium model, or a greater redesign.
Related post: Nintendo’s R&D in Miniature Device Designs
[Originally posted on 2026-05-12 Pacific Time]
