Knowledge-based discourse

Within the notice of Nintendo shareholders meeting is the breakdown of inventories as of 2025-03. It reached the unprecedented level of 486 billion yen (~US$3.4B).

  • ¥37B more Raw Materials than the previous COVID induced high
  • Quadrupling the previous Work-in-Progress high for OLED Model preproduction
  • Finish Goods barely lower than 2018-09, when Nintendo made more than they could sell (more on that below)
  • 49% higher total inventory than previous record

In 2018-09 Nintendo had inventory excess due to optimistic forecast of 20MM Switch and 4M 3DS sales. Since Switch 2 is priced 50% higher than Switch 1, the aforementioned 49% inventory increase suggests that Nintendo might be preparing for 20M Switch 2 sales (and 4M Switch 1). The 15M forecast is only a charade.

[Originally posted on 2025-06-03 Pacific Time]