Ever ponder why the Switch 2 release in Japan was lottery based and the US first-come-first-served? Me neither, but researchers at University of Osaka did. Here are their hypotheses:
- In the US, businesses prioritize operational efficiency. Rather than bearing the costs of a lottery system, they use first-come-first-served to transfer the burden of access management to consumers. It encourages competition and conflict among buyers.
- The Japanese market is willing to trade off a considerable amount of efficiency to reduce reputational risk. The lottery system removes “systemic disadvantage” and “low personal effort” to suppress social conflict and dissatisfaction.
- The US system emphasizes equality of opportunity based on individual effort and responsibility. The belief is that those who prepare well and act faster should be rewarded, ignoring the social and economic disparities faced by individuals.
- In Japan, probabilistic equality and procedural justice are internalized as “fair” and “unbiased”. Pushing others down to obtain a product is “shameful” and “unfair”. The lottery system is a socially justified mechanism for “fair distribution”.
- US consumers are somewhat accustomed to the launch day chaos and competition. Decentralized measures such as sharing buying tips on Discord and X are favored by the fans; centralized measures by companies such as a lottery system are not expected.
- The lottery system signifies a company treating all customers equally, thus building trust with its fan community. Unlike the competition in the US, Japanese fans form camaraderie by waiting for lottery results together and sharing win/loss with each other.
- Likewise, Japanese consumers have high expectations of companies and marketplaces to take actions against scalpers. The US fan communities don’t expect businesses to do much, but coordinate reporting of scalper listings via fan sites such as Reddit.
- US fan culture turns first-come-first-served queues into special events. A YouTuber lined up for NS2 since April, retailers hosted midnight launches, and Doug Bowser made an appearance. Fans enjoy the shared experience, and it fosters unity within the community.
- Japanese fans are expected to exercise self-restraint in public, and lines are “managed” than celebrated. Gamers quietly lined up for a lottery ticket and prayed for winning. Competitive and festive queuing is not part of the fan culture.
[Originally posted on 2025-07-20 Pacific Time]
