I think I know where Mochizuki’s source or himself got the 6M/4M units production and “over 30% cut” numbers from.
Background info: Foxconn Technology Co. (aka FTC; a subsidiary of Foxconn Group, aka Hon-Hai) is a major Switch assembler. 86% of its 2025 revenues came from Nintendo alone (see revenue charts below). So its financial data is a good proxy for Switch production. For instance, from FTC’s reporting we knew that Nintendo began receiving mass-produced Switch 2 units from Nov 2024.
Fast forward to now (see revenue table below):
- In Oct-Dec (fiscal Q3 for Nintendo), FTC made ~42.5B NTD; that correlates to 7M Switch 2 units sold in Q3
- This correlation isn’t precise or reliable, but it seems to be the math that Mochizuki or his source did; I’ll keep using it for the following bullet points
- In Jan, FTC made ~13.4B NTD; if that holds for Feb-Mar, it’d be ~40B NTD for Q4, correlating to ~6.5M units
- However, Feb revenue dropped to ~7.2B NTD; if that holds for Mar, it’d be ~28B NTD for Q4, correlating to ~4.5M units
- That is a ~31% reduction
If this is indeed how Mochizuki’s source or himself estimated the numbers, it’s not just shoddy but enters the territory of market manipulation.
P.S.: FTC’s Feb revenue decreased every year because of Lunar New Year (across Jan-Feb in 2025). It’s dubious to interpret that as an indicator of production cuts.
Data source: FTC Investor Relations
[Originally posted on 2026-03-24 Pacific Time]
