Knowledge-based discourse

Today Bloomberg reported that Nintendo has enough supply to ship over 20M Switch 2 units, despite the conservative 15M forecast. It’s nice to have the confirmation, but people paying attention already knew this since May 9th—when the company disclosed that FY2025-03 ended with ¥486B of inventory.

Prior to FY25, the largest inventory was ¥326B in Q2 FY19, when Nintendo prepared for the holiday sales with 20M NS1 + 4MM 3DS forecast. In contrast, Q4 FY25’s ¥486B post-holiday inventory was clearly too large for their 15M NS2 + 4.5M NS1 forecast. The number suggests an internal goal of 20M+ sales.

[Originally posted on 2025-05-20 Pacific Time]