Some finer points about Nintendo’s FY2027-03 forecast, for people who’d like to look beyond the headlines:
- The 60M units software forecast does not include bundled games, but FY26’s 48.71M units do (image below), making the +23.2% comparison practically meaningless. (This is just one of many instances of Nintendo obfuscating data—digital ratio too. I dislike this practice.)
- Even with the new pricing, 16.5M units hardware forecast seems a low-ball. It reminds me of the initial 15M projection for FY26 (image below); in the end 19.86M were sold (+32.4%).
- Nintendo actually projects FY27’s operating profit (from games + IP) to grow slightly (image 1 below). The detractor is the ordinary profit, which includes non-game/IP income. It seems that Nintendo doesn’t expect to repeat FY26’s high level of investment incomes and currency gains (img 2).
- The forecasted drop of FY27 net profit (-26.9%; see above) almost completely comes from the reduction of ordinary profit—investment incomes and currency gains—not because of the game/IP business.
- Lastly, despite looking conservative, a net sales of ¥2,050B would make FY27 the 2nd highest in Nintendo’s 137-year history. Yes, FY26 is the highest ever (image below), but Mochizuki somehow described both numbers “weak” and “surprisingly weak”.
Image sources: Nintendo, and Asahi Shimbun
[Originally posted on 2026-05-08 Pacific Time]
